SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
SATURDAY 14th JUNE 2025 PM SHIFT
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW:
The area of responsibility, generally exposed to the moderate southeasterly winds and a few clouds mainly over the highlands. An upper-level ridge of high-pressure system supports the surface systems. As a result, the radiosonde profile and integrated water vapor animation delineate insufficient moisture content and instability. Also, it depicts a present inversion or capped layer coupled with the strong wind shear that hindered convection. For that reason, there is no synoptic lifting across the area. Thus, the atmosphere was stable with cool and dry weather conditions.
For tomorrow, it is highly possible to encounter similar weather patterns. The prevailing mean wind flow is expected to remain with a few low-level clouds across windward locations. What’s more, anticipate minimal chance of showers activities as the dry and cool southeasterlies persist.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
A slight increase in cloud coverage with minimal showery activities in some areas of the island chain on Monday because of a weak convergence zone interconnected to a trough of low-pressure system. Further, wind speed is likely to decrease, becoming gentle-to-light. Then Tuesday into Wednesday, the prevailing wind flow is expected to become light and variable while slowly veering south-to-southeast. At the start of Thursday, there is a developed area of high pressure system likely to linger near New Zealand, which may again reintroduce moderate cool and dry southeasterlies over our country. This weather feature is forecasted to continue through Friday, with similar weather conditions expected. Furthermore, the previously stated upper-level area of high pressure located southeast of the Solomon Islands will slowly move eastward, while supporting the previously named surface high pressure. Therefore, this very system is recommended to watch with a concerned eye since probabilistic models hint at a probable chance of wind strength exceeding 20 knots or 37 km/h in the later part of the outlook period.
MARINE OUTLOOK:
All marine observational data from Aunu’u and King Poloa wave buoys continue to showcase wave and swell heights fluctuating below the 2.5 metres advisory mark, posing no imminent threat across the islands’ marine waters. And this wave trend is forecasted to prolong through the beginning of the new week. But, in regard to the wave watch model, it suggested a movable area of high pressure system formed over New Zealand. This particular system may generate a combined effect of wind waves and elevated southerly swells reaching our marine waters late Thursday into Friday. So, for now, in the case the model performance and time of impact are greatly uncertain, what is sure is that a forecasted significant weather scenario is under consideration to monitor and carefully investigate.
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
NONE
Weather On-Duty Team:
A. Liu, G. Niko, P. Huch, & N. Tutasi.